Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 88568.136295 93434.357076 98297.170030 103517.815530 108960.530852 114464.025961 120446.140203
2025-02-09 80524.525719 87977.605560 95632.131927 104070.593957 113101.529465 122466.010242 132899.630690
2025-02-16 74338.368952 83512.441208 93140.434721 103976.515593 115810.550207 128319.951914 142520.669652
2025-02-23 69959.816495 80449.272661 91658.025961 104490.913497 118739.961570 134039.322002 151670.914119
2025-03-02 66113.960342 77612.426253 90096.047539 104603.860691 120946.037119 138730.473772 159491.941512
2025-03-09 63634.127343 76080.905310 89784.927768 105921.322338 124327.279724 144592.410383 168514.003050
2025-03-16 60417.132332 73507.460253 88113.561504 105526.749446 125624.435825 147994.459905 174674.791414
2025-03-23 58725.840780 72573.866043 88210.087479 107057.270888 129036.960379 153736.436366 183461.667925
2025-03-30 56874.602339 71342.973268 87865.713554 107990.003791 131690.024986 158562.579158 191176.749418
2025-04-06 54781.198129 69721.372677 86971.241140 108193.316256 133422.261775 162274.629405 197573.716044
2025-04-13 52727.313808 68055.262625 85941.124686 108158.776653 134809.492948 165537.276987 203417.714926
2025-04-20 51763.451156 67658.990101 86383.975120 109844.972096 138212.625731 171156.936208 212043.239014
2025-04-27 50815.445576 67264.810540 86826.914511 111547.659403 141676.099356 176915.764810 220940.801672
2025-05-04 49454.636699 66308.139034 86544.128124 112338.131748 144025.317641 181353.460413 228295.858864
2025-05-11 47758.574598 64868.281475 85611.390909 112281.629064 145306.231949 184487.028677 234082.338657
2025-05-18 46465.253094 63888.950820 85206.190033 112838.383858 147309.165661 188477.408269 240906.113403
2025-05-25 45043.251701 62693.875521 84485.344340 112960.588045 148744.248635 191759.588399 246868.001817
2025-06-01 44294.984459 62338.859102 84799.406433 114362.898881 151759.610014 196977.060611 255216.018334
2025-06-08 42765.332383 60913.940431 83706.544172 113943.158030 152463.202511 199331.181647 260040.714666
2025-06-15 42219.318344 60762.794628 84230.073680 115571.584235 155741.583485 204878.270758 268835.287777
2025-06-22 41428.281746 60257.373860 84272.090600 116563.840300 158205.567804 209416.755025 276399.001196
2025-06-29 40347.739213 59329.612568 83734.010779 116780.113950 159662.315472 212689.094229 282390.704611
2025-07-06 39212.523118 58293.772423 83023.163638 116743.373139 160773.133658 215515.321726 287824.807401